Colleges are now tasked with making sense of this growing divergence between grades and test scores as they seek to admit students who will thrive on campus. Understanding how colleges are adjusting to these changes can help families better prepare for the admissions process.

GPA as a Predictor of College Success

High school GPA has long been one of the most reliable indicators of a student’s potential for success in college. Research consistently shows that GPA is a strong predictor of college performance. For example:

• Studies show that GPA explains about 34% of the variance in college success, making it one of the most reliable indicators of how students will perform in higher education.
• According to research from the University of Chicago, students with a GPA of 3.75 or higher have an 80% chance of graduating from college, compared to just a 20% chance for those with a GPA below 1.75.

Because GPA reflects a student’s sustained academic performance over several years, it gives colleges a broader view of a student’s ability to manage coursework, meet deadlines, and stay engaged in their studies.

The Return of Standardized Test Requirements

While many colleges moved to test-optional policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing number of institutions are beginning to reinstate standardized test requirements. This shift signals a return to traditional admissions criteria, as colleges seek additional ways to measure academic preparedness.

Several factors are driving this trend:

• Predictive Value: While GPA is considered a strong predictor of college success, some colleges argue that standardized tests still provide valuable information. These tests offer a common benchmark that can help admissions officers compare students from different schools and educational backgrounds.
• Pressure from Stakeholders: Alumni, governing boards, and even prospective students are sometimes pushing colleges to reinstate standardized testing requirements, seeing them as a measure of fairness and rigor in the admissions process.
• Application Review Efficiency: With the growing number of college applications, some admissions offices find that standardized test scores can help them process and filter applications more efficiently, particularly at large institutions with limited staff.

Several prominent universities have already returned to requiring SAT or ACT scores, and others are expected to follow. This reversal in policy emphasizes the need for students to be well-prepared for standardized tests, even as many institutions continue to embrace holistic review processes.

The Shift Toward Holistic Review

Despite the return of standardized test requirements at some colleges, holistic review has become a standard in the admissions process at many institutions. Holistic review involves evaluating applicants based on a range of factors beyond just GPA and test scores, including:

• Personal Statements and Essays: Students are encouraged to showcase their unique experiences, aspirations, and personal qualities through their essays. This allows admissions officers to better understand a student’s character, values, and goals.
• Extracurricular Involvement: Colleges are looking for students who are engaged outside of the classroom. Leadership roles, volunteer work, and participation in clubs and organizations all contribute to a student's profile and demonstrate initiative and commitment.
• Letters of Recommendation: Teachers, counselors, and mentors provide insight into a student's academic potential, work ethic, and interpersonal skills through letters of recommendation. These evaluations often carry significant weight in holistic admissions decisions.

Holistic review is becoming the dominant approach in college admissions because it allows colleges to see the full picture of who a student is beyond their grades and test scores. As colleges continue to seek well-rounded students who will contribute to campus life, the holistic review process offers a broader and more inclusive framework for evaluating applicants.

What the Grade-Test Mismatch Means for College Admissions

The growing mismatch between grades and standardized test scores is prompting colleges to reexamine how they weigh these metrics in the admissions process. Here are three key takeaways for families:

1. GPA Remains a Strong Indicator: High school GPA continues to be one of the most reliable predictors of college success. Colleges will closely evaluate a student’s GPA, especially in college-preparatory courses, to assess their academic readiness.
2. Standardized Tests Are Making a Comeback: As more colleges reinstate standardized test requirements, students should be prepared to take the SAT or ACT seriously. Strong test scores can enhance an application and provide additional evidence of a student's academic abilities.
3. Holistic Review Is the New Standard: More colleges are embracing holistic admissions, evaluating students based on a wide range of factors. Students should focus on presenting a well-rounded application that highlights their strengths in academics, extracurricular activities, and personal qualities.

As the admissions landscape evolves, students and families need to adapt their strategies to ensure success. By focusing on both academic performance and personal development, students can navigate the complexities of the admissions process and increase their chances of being accepted into their chosen colleges.