4 Predictions for
College Admissions In 2024
……And One Certainty

Many parents of high school students start the new year by wondering (and sometimes worrying) how the college admissions process will evolve as their teenager navigates their journey to college. College admissions vary significantly annually due to many factors, including economic changes, educational policy shifts, technological advances, and demographic differences.

As our team looks ahead to 2024, here are our top 4 predictions, as well as one thing we are certain of.

APPLICATION INFLATION

WILL CONTINUE

While the rate of inflation declines in our economy, application inflation that started during COVID-19 will continue to be the new normal for the most selective schools and majors. The Common App reports that the share of students applying to more than 10 colleges increased from 8% to 17% between 2014 and 2023. While application numbers dropped significantly for some smaller schools – especially for those not well known – the most competitive schools in the country have seen a tsunami of applications. These increases aren’t just for highly selective schools. For example, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville is experiencing record growth in undergraduate first-year applications and the most competitive applicant pool in its 229-year history. For Fall 2024 entry, UT received 49,248 applications by the November 1 Early Action deadline, a 28% increase and 10,774 more applications compared to November 2022. Data for this admissions season is already starting to emerge as colleges release their early decision/restrictive early action decisions in late 2023. Schools like Duke, Dartmouth, and Rice again saw a record number of early applicants, driving admit rates to record lows. 

The solution is clear in the midst of this ongoing wave of inflation—students should focus on a balanced college list, with more possible schools than reaches and a few schools that are a match for the student. While it’s always been advisable to have a balanced college list, now it may actually mean the difference between having several colleges to choose from in the spring of senior year or having only one college choice (or, worse, no acceptances). For a typical high school student, a balanced list often looks like this: 2 to 3 Reach schools (acceptance rates under 30%), 5 to 7 Possible colleges (acceptance rates 30-65%), and 2 to 3 in the Match category (acceptance rates 65% and over). As Jeff Selingo said in his book Who Gets In and Why: A Year Inside College Admissions, "The more time teenagers spend making sure their college list has a mix of schools, as well as thinking about the academic, social, and financial fit of each of them, the better off they’ll be at the end of the process."

RISE OF AI-DRIVEN

APPLICATION REVIEW 

To accelerate and enhance student selection, more colleges in 2024 will implement machine learning algorithms that assess applicants based on predicted college performance and career outcomes. A survey in fall 2023 by Intelligent underscores the prediction, suggesting that half of admissions departments currently use AI and 82% will by 2025. Systems will scan applications, transcripts, essays, and more for attributes correlating with graduation rates, GPAs, income, and other metrics colleges value. Schools will refine algorithms over time using student outcome data. While humans will still make final calls, AI assessments will substantially influence admission decisions. Expect some schools to experiment with video essays, virtual interviews, and portfolio reviews to better understand what makes the applicant distinctive. Review processes will likely be more holistic at many schools, assessing personal talents, stories, diversity factors, and grit alongside the algorithm's score. 

As predictive artificial intelligence enters the mainstream of college admissions, the pressure intensifies for students to pad applications with formulaic, robotic extracurricular activities designed to game the system. The truth is that a student's unique sparks and genuine interests matter now more than ever. Even the best machine learning algorithms can not measure human qualities, like creativity, leadership, and commitment, as well as people can. Rather than cramming schedules with activities college AI assistants may be programmed to prefer, students should stay true to what actually fires them up – like starting that climate change club they're passionate about or volunteering at the immigration center where they can uplift spirits with humor. Admissions officers are seeking students who enrich communities with the full force of their authentic selves. Comparing one's self to others serves no one, so instead, students should try to listen to their spirit, explore what speaks to them, and have faith, that by leading with heart, they'll find the college where they can contribute their authentic talents and thrive.

THE GROWTH IN 

HIGHLY SELECTIVE MAJORS

As the college admissions landscape continues to evolve, in 2024, highly popular majors like computer science, engineering, biology, business, and nursing will become increasingly selective and competitive. Where a university may have a reasonably accessible overall admission rate of 30-40%, particular programs may only admit around 5-15% of applicants. This gap means students can no longer assume that admission to a college equates to access to their desired major. In some cases, students may even find that they are admitted to a highly selective college despite being rejected from a less selective program at a different college. For example, one student who was denied admission to the computer science program at the University of Texas at Austin was admitted to Stanford. This is a reminder that the college admissions process is unpredictable, and sometimes, the best outcomes come from unexpected places.

This intensifying competition for limited spots in highly selective majors means high school students must get strategic earlier. Choosing a likely college major should begin actively by 10th grade, allowing time for students to build on their interests and become more involved in activities that confirm this specific fit. Students must go beyond surface-level involvement to deep engagement in activities that communicate initiative and talents aligning with intended majors. Targeted internships, advanced courses, academic contests, labs, makerspaces, journals... these help a student gain confidence that a field of study is a strong match. Preparing for highly selective majors is a much longer process than it was 5 years ago, requiring self-reflection on skills and experiences. By identifying good-fit programs and pursuing meaningful experiences tailored to a student's individual strengths from freshman year on, students can thrive in this new reality.

OUR SHARED

POLITICAL CLIMATE

WILL MAKE THE JOURNEY TO COLLEGE EVEN MORE COMPLEX

In 2024, local and national politics will likely shape college admissions in important ways. Changes in institutional priorities, curriculum rules, and admissions policies may create differing environments across regions. This could lead to some constraints for certain students, while potentially benefiting others. The 2024 Presidential election may also catalyze student activism on pressing issues like free speech, inequality, and civic engagement. Many colleges are eager to accept engaged applicants committed to their communities. In the 2023 survey of high school seniors, the diversity of the college student body was important to 84% of students, and the diversity of faculty and staff was important to 81%. Almost half of the students said a diverse student body was “a must-have feature” at their dream college. While political tensions on some campuses could risk drowning out diverse voices, most institutions will likely uphold free speech and ideological diversity as essential to their missions.

This complex landscape calls for nuance, empathy, and principle from all involved. Rather than seeing this as solely divisive, it also presents opportunities for students to select colleges aligned with their personal values and interests, while balancing their own vision for diversity on their college list. By focusing on shared goals around opportunity, justice, and open inquiry, students can help promote the best of what higher education aspires to be. Applicants who are able to articulate their vision and work toward it could particularly stand out as promising contributors to campus life. With care and wisdom, students can play a part in ensuring college remains a place for positive change.

One Certainty: The Journey To College Will Continue To Be Stressful For Students
(and their parents)

Sadly, one thing is clear: the journey to college will continue to be stressful. Surveys show more than 70% of students feel high stress about the college application process… so if you're overwhelmed by college applications, you're not alone!

Parents & counselors can help students set realistic expectations about their chances at exceptionally selective colleges, while encouraging them to highlight their unique stories across a balanced list of possible, reach and match schools. Focus on the aspects of the process the student can control – crafting authentic, high-quality applications. 

Parents and counselors can also make space for open conversations about priorities and concerns, validating the stress students feel. Guide them to reflect thoughtfully on what environment would allow them to thrive. 

Wherever students end up in the fall of 2024, there will still be incredible adventures ahead. Parents can play a crucial role in reducing unhealthy perfectionism and fear of disappointment by communicating unconditional support. Remind teenagers to appreciate the journey, lean on community, and have faith that things will work out as they are meant to.

“Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” Anticipating the myriad changes ahead for college applicants can often seem like an unending search for data. 2024 promises to be a year of continued complexity in college admissions, but preparing for the journey ahead can make the process organized, personal, and sometimes even fun.